Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models     

Ignacio Fraga  Luis Cea  Jernimo Puertas 《水文研究》2019,33(1):160-173

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.  相似文献   

Changes in run‐off and sediment load in the three parts of the Yellow River basin,in response to climate change and human activities     

Chaojun Gu  Xingmin Mu  Peng Gao  Guangju Zhao  Wenyi Sun 《水文研究》2019,33(4):585-601

Hydrological regimes in the Yellow River have changed significantly because of climate change and intensive human interventions. These changes present severe challenges to water resource utilization and ecological development. Variation of run‐off, suspended sediment load (SSL), and eight precipitation indices (P1: 0–12 mm·day^?1, P12: 12–25 mm·day^?1, P25: 25–50 mm·day^?1, P50: P ≥ 50 mm·day^?1 and corresponding rainfall day: Pd1, Pd12, Pd25, Pd50 day year^?1) in three critical parts of the Yellow River basin (source region: SRYRB, upper reaches: URYRB, middle reaches: MRYRB) were investigated for the period from 1960 to 2015. The results show that run‐off and SSL significantly decreased (P < 0.01) in the URYRB and the MRYRB, whereas their decline in the SRYRB was insignificant (P > 0.05). Moreover, run‐off in the URYRB had one change point in 1987, and SSL in the URYRB as well as run‐off and SSL in the MRYRB had two change points (in the 1970s and the 1990s). Over the same period, only Pd1 and Pd12 in the SRYRB showed significant increasing trends, and an abrupt change appeared in 1981. The optimal precipitation indices for assessing the effects of precipitation on run‐off and SSL in the URYRB and MRYRB were Pd50 and P12, respectively. A double‐mass curve analysis showed that precipitation and human activities contributed to approximately 20% and 80% of the reduction in run‐off, respectively, for both the SRYRB and the MRYRB. However, the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities on SSL reduction was approximately 40% and 60% in the URYRB and 5% and 95% in the MRYRB, respectively. Human activities, primarily soil and water conservation measures and water extraction (diversion), were the main factors (>50%) that reduced the run‐off. However, the dominant driving factors for SSL reduction were soil and water conservation measures and reservoir interception, for which the contribution rate was higher than 70% in the MRYRB. This work strengthens the understanding of hydrological responses to precipitation change and provides a useful reference for regional water resource utilization.  相似文献   

Rainfall partitioning through a mixed cedar swamp and associated C and N fluxes in Southern Ontario,Canada     

Tim P. Duval 《水文研究》2019,33(11):1510-1524

Partitioning of rainfall through a forest canopy into throughfall, stemflow, and canopy interception is a critical process in the water cycle, and the contact of precipitation with vegetated surfaces leads to increased delivery of solutes to the forest floor. This study investigates the rainfall partitioning over a growing season through a temperate, riparian, mixed coniferous‐deciduous cedar swamp, an ecosystem not well studied with respect to this process. Seasonal throughfall, stemflow, and interception were 69.2%, 1.5%, and 29.3% of recorded above‐canopy precipitation, respectively. Event throughfall ranged from a low of 31.5 ± 6.8% for a small 0.8‐mm event to a high of 82.9 ± 2.4% for a large 42.7‐mm event. Rain fluxes of at least 8 mm were needed to generate stemflow from all instrumented trees. Most trees had funnelling ratios <1.0, with an exponential decrease in funnelling ratio with increasing tree size. Despite this, stand‐scale funnelling ratios averaged 2.81 ± 1.73, indicating equivalent depth of water delivered across the swamp floor by stemflow was greater than incident precipitation. Throughfall dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) averaged 26.60 ± 2.96 and 2.02 ± 0.16 mg L^?1, respectively, which were ~11 and three times above‐canopy rain levels. Stemflow DOC averaged 73.33 ± 7.43 mg L^?1, 35 times higher than precipitation, and TDN was 4.45 ± 0.56 mg L^?1, 7.5 times higher than rain. Stemflow DOC concentration was highest from Populus balsamifera and TDN greatest from Thuja occidentalis trees. Although total below‐canopy flux of TDN increased with increasing event size, DOC flux was greatest for events 20–30 mm, suggesting a canopy storage threshold of DOC was readily diluted. In addition to documenting rainfall partitioning in a novel ecosystem, this study demonstrates the excess carbon and nitrogen delivered to riparian swamps, suggesting the assimilative capacity of these zones may be underestimated.  相似文献   

The vertical influence of temperature and precipitation on snow cover variability in the Central Tianshan Mountains,Northwest China     

Senyao Wu  Xueliang Zhang  Jinkang Du  Xiaobing Zhou  Ye Tuo  Runjie Li  Zheng Duan 《水文研究》2019,33(12):1686-1697

Seasonal snow cover in mountainous regions will affect local climate and hydrology. In this study, we assessed the role of altitude in determining the relative importance of temperature and precipitation in snow cover variability in the Central Tianshan Mountains. The results show that: (a) in the study area, temperature has a greater influence on snow cover than precipitation during most of the time period studied and in most altitudes. (b) In the high elevation area, there is a threshold altitude of 3,900 ± 400 m, below which temperature is negatively correlated whereas precipitation is positively correlated to snow cover, and above which the situation is the opposite. Besides, this threshold altitude decreases from snow accumulated period to snow stable period and then increases from snowmelt period to snow‐free period. (c) Below 2,000 m, there is another threshold altitude of 1,400 ± 100 m during the snow stable period, below (above) which precipitation (temperature) is the main driver of snow cover.  相似文献   

Comparison of nitrate export patterns in forested catchments in Japan and the Northeastern United States: A meta‐analysis     

Nobuhito Ohte  Masanori Katsuyama 《水文研究》2019,33(25):3184-3194

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Prograded coastal barriers provide paleoenvironmental records of storms and sea level during late Quaternary highstands          下载免费PDF全文

Amy J. Dougherty 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(5):501-517

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Simulations of the Impact of Lakes on Local and Regional Climate Over the Tibetan Plateau     

Lingjing Zhu  Xin Liu  Lei Tian  Qunhui Zhang 《大气与海洋》2018,56(4):230-239

ABSTRACT

Because of the high elevation and complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the role of lakes in the climate system over the Tibetan Plateau is not well understood. For this study, we investigated the impact of lake processes on local and regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes a one-dimensional physically based lake model. The first simulation with the WRF model was performed for the TP over the 2000–2010 period, and the second was carried out during the same period but with the lakes filled with nearby land-use types. Results with the lake simulation show that the model captures the spatial and temporal patterns of annual mean precipitation and temperature well over the TP. Through comparison of the two simulations, we found that the TP lakes mainly cool the near-surface air, inducing a decreasing sensible heat flux for the entire year. Meanwhile, stronger evaporation produced by the lakes is found in the fall. During the summer, the cooling effect of the lakes decreases precipitation in the surrounding area and generates anomalous circulation patterns. In conclusion, the TP lakes cool the near-surface atmosphere most of the time, weaken the sensible heat flux, and strengthen the latent heat flux, resulting in changes in mesoscale precipitation and regional-scale circulation.  相似文献   

黔北正安地区五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气地质特征及有利区预测     

贺永忠  向坤鹏  安亚运  易成兴  杨忠琴  于宁 《中国地质调查》2020,7(3):21-29

为明确黔北正安地区上奥陶统五峰组至下志留统龙马溪组的页岩气地质特征,充分应用页岩气地质调查、重磁电、二维地震、地质调查井及测试分析等工作方法,开展黔北正安地区1:5万页岩气基础地质调查,对五峰组至龙马溪组富有机质页岩的分布、沉积环境、有机地球化学、岩石矿物、储集性能及含气性等特征进行分析研究,结果表明: 研究区五峰组—龙马溪组富有机质页岩为深水陆棚相沉积,主要分布有安场向斜、斑竹向斜和泥高向斜,厚度14.5~55 m,埋深0~3 200 m; 有机碳(TOC)含量1.0%~4.0%,有机质镜质体反射率(R_o)为1.82%~2.23%,有机质类型以Ⅰ型干酪根为主; 岩石主要由石英、长石和黏土矿物组成,脆性矿物含量高,一般大于50%; 孔隙度为2.03%~3.89%,渗透率为0.35×10^-5~1.86×10^-5μm²,表现为低孔、特低渗的特征; 最高含气量为2.88 m³/t,显示出较好的含气性特征。综合分析和评价圈出3个页岩气聚集有利区,分别为安场区块、斑竹区块和泥高区块,这为研究区页岩气进一步勘探开发指明了方向。  相似文献   

印度河上游Bagrot山谷降水稳定同位素变化及与水汽来源的关系          下载免费PDF全文

王邺凡  余武生  张寅生  张腾  高海峰  MUHAMMAD Atif Wazir 《干旱区地理》2019,42(2):252-262

利用2015年8月至2016年7月在印度河上游流域Bagrot山谷降水稳定同位素（δ18O和δD）观测结果以及当地气象资料，利用同位素示踪及统计分析方法，并结合HYSPLIT模型，对研究区降水稳定同位素变化特征、大气水线以及水汽来源进行了分析。结果表明，观测期间Bagrot山谷降水稳定同位素的季节变化明显，δ18O与δD秋冬季偏低，春夏季偏高，且与气温变化一致，存在显著的温度效应，而降水量效应不明显。而且发现，研究区局地大气水线截距和斜率均低于全球的，反映了降水过程中云下二次蒸发作用较为强烈，特别是，不同的降水形态导致该研究区局地大气水线的斜率和截距不同。当液态降水（降雨）发生时，由于在较为干旱的气候环境下，雨滴在降落的过程中受到二次蒸发相对较强，使得局地大气水线的斜率和截距偏低；而当固态降水（降雪）发生时，由于温度较低，受再循环水汽和二次蒸发的影响较小，导致局地大气水线的斜率和截距均偏高。Bagrot山谷及其周边地区，从南到北局地大气水线的斜率相差不大，而其截距总体上随着纬度升高而降低，可能与云下二次蒸发导致稳定同位素发生的不平衡分馏逐渐强烈有关。通过Bagrot山谷站点降水稳定同位素观测结果并结合HYSPLIT模型的后向追踪，研究还发现，研究区全年主要受西风环流以及局地环流的影响。但与研究区以北的临近站点（慕士塔格、和田等）相比有所不同，由于Bagrot山谷位置更靠南，其仍然偶尔受到来自南方的海洋性水汽影响。这一研究结果可能对该地区树轮稳定同位素记录的解译具有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

波粒相互作用导致环电流质子沉降的卫星共轭观测          下载免费PDF全文

王杰  袁志刚  余雄东  薛祖祥 《地球物理学报》2020,63(6):2131-2140

波粒相互作用是环电流损失的重要机制之一,但波粒相互作用导致的环电流离子沉降而损失迄今为止缺乏直接的观测证据.基于磁层及电离层卫星的协同观测,本文报道了发生在2015年9月7日,由电磁离子回旋波(EMIC波)导致环电流质子沉降的共轭观测事件.在等离子体层的内边界,Van Allen Probe B卫星观测到,存在EMIC波的区域和不存在EMIC波的区域相比,离子通量的投掷角分布的各向异性变弱.我们将Van Allen Probe B卫星沿着磁力线投影到电离层高度,同时在该投影区域内DMSP 16卫星在亚极光区域观测到环电流质子沉降.而且,通过从理论上计算质子弹跳平均扩散系数,我们进一步证实观测的EMIC波确实能将环电流质子散射到损失锥中.本文的研究工作为EMIC波导致环电流质子沉降提供了直接的观测证据,揭示了环电流衰减的重要物理机制:EMIC波将环电流质子散射到损失锥中,从而沉降到低高度大气层中而损失.  相似文献